Title: MLB Free-Agent Spending Trends: What Teams Are Likely to Make Moves This Winter
As the MLB free-agent market begins to heat up, the presence of several marquee players still available suggests that significant spending may be on the horizon. While it’s still early days, it’s worth delving into which teams are likely to open their wallets this winter. Let’s break down the 30 MLB teams into tiers based on their expected aggressiveness in pursuing free agents:
Tier 1: Don’t Count on Anything
These are the teams least likely to make a big splash in free agency.
30. Colorado Rockies
Final 2025 Payroll: $124 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $97 million
The Rockies have occasionally surprised with major free-agent signings in the past, but recent failures indicate a need for a new approach under the leadership of Paul DePodesta.
29. Washington Nationals
Final 2025 Payroll: $118 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $93 million
Once big spenders, the Nationals have shifted focus under the Lerner family, showing little inclination to increase payroll despite past success.
28. Minnesota Twins
Final 2025 Payroll: $136 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $96 million
Following a roster overhaul, the Twins have the financial flexibility to reinvest in their team but have yet to show significant interest in free-agent acquisitions.
Tier 2: No Money for Free Agents
Tier 3: Cash-Strapped Contenders
Tier 4: Sneaky Small-Market Clubs
Tier 5: Might Have Something Up Their Sleeve
Tier 6: Deep Pockets, But Hard to Read
Tier 7: They’ll Spend, but with Limits
Tier 8: This Is Where the Action Is
This analysis focuses on predicting which teams are likely to make moves in free agency, rather than those who have already done so. While some teams have already made signings, many still have room to maneuver in the market.
For a more detailed breakdown of team spending trends and projections, refer to FanGraphs’ 2025 payrolls and 2026 payroll estimates. Keep an eye on these tiers as the offseason progresses, as they provide valuable insights into which teams are poised to make significant moves to bolster their rosters for the upcoming season.
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